The increase in human life expectancy may be slowing down, according to an analysis of data from nine regions around the world, including Spain, over the past three decades published today in Nature Aging. The accelerated rates of increase in life expectancy observed in the 20th century have slowed, especially after 2010: children born in recent years have a relatively low probability of reaching 100 years of age. The authors suggest that there is no evidence that a radical extension of life expectancy has occurred or will occur in the 21st century.
Diego Ramiro - esperanza vida ralentiza EN
Diego Ramiro
Director of the Institute of Economy, Geography and Demography of the CSIC
The study is of good quality, and the people who wrote it are leading experts in the field. The conclusions are supported by data from the Human Mortality Database, which are solid and used as a reference in many mortality studies.
The paper shows the slowdown in life expectancy growth experienced by many countries in recent years. In some cases, not only a slowdown but also a fall, as in the case of the United States. In the face of the more optimistic view of a continuous growth in life expectancy at birth, with growth at 0.3 months per year, the authors show that this process will not be at that rate, and that the evidence shows that this rate has slowed down.
It would have been desirable for them to delve more deeply into the reasons behind these brakes on accelerated growth in life expectancy. More specifically, on the inequalities within the same society in terms of differences in life expectancy by level of education or socio-economic level, which may mean that life expectancy grows at different rates in each population group.
Actuarial estimates based on more optimistic forecasts of growth of 0.3 years of life expectancy per year should be revised, as such large increases in life expectancy are not to be expected.
- Research article
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Olshansky et al.
- Research article
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